Shortly after (Pakistani) terrorists bombed several targets in Mumbai, India, the Indian government made clear that it believed most terrorists to be Pakistani and / or trained in terrorist training camps in Pakistan. However, due to the delicate nature of the subject and the complex relationship between the two neighbors, both nuclear powers, India decided to launch a major investigation before accusing the Pakistani government of any wrongdoing.

It took them a while, but the Indians seem to have ended their investigation. The result: the Indian government says it is convinced that Pakistani government agencies were involved in the attacks. The terrorists, the Indians say, were aided and abetted by Pakistani government officials; without this support, the terrorists would not have been able to cause the death and destruction they caused.

Prime Minister Singh told journalists Tuesday that the terrorist attacks were of such a sophisticated nature that they could not have been carried out without support from Pakistani government agencies. Furthermore, New Delhi concludes that Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba was behind the attacks: the Pakistani government has done little to nothing against this terrorist organization. It has, in fact, even supported it for years. 

Although Singh failed to name the exact agencies he believes to be involved, most will assume that the agency is Pakistan’s secret intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The ISI has supported extremists in India and Afghanistan for decades, believing this groups to be valuable weapons to be used against India; together with Pakistan the region’s superpower. 

The relationship between India and Pakistan has been problematic for years, it dates back to the very creation of the two states. India is a Hindu country (with a Muslim minority), whereas Pakistan is Muslim. Furthermore, some provinces of India, especially Kashmir, are inhabited by a majority Muslim population; these Muslims want to either become independent or join Pakistan. Lastly, the two sides have tried to increase their regional influence by curbing that of the other; the war between Pakistan and India has mostly been waged through proxies. Especially Pakistan has often used terrorist organizations against India; these groups have caused tremendous chaos in India, Pakistan itself and Afghanistan (a center front in the battle for regional dominance).

The terrorist attacks, Pakistan’s probably involvement and India’s rather blunt reaction to it, could very well cause an escalation. India and the United States will put pressure on Pakistan’s president to rid himself and the ISI of elements that aide and abet terrorists. This will force Islamabad to either act in an unacceptable way to India and the US or to engage in a domestic powerstruggle which could very well end up destabilizing the country. 

It is worth keeping an eye on the situation; the two countries involved are major regional and nuclear powers. It is vital for the West to have a good relationship with both and vice versa.