When Israel first attacked Gaza late last year, I argued that its timing may have something to do with the upcoming elections in that Jewish nation-state; in February voters will decide which party will govern in the coming years. Polls showed the right-wing Likud party in the lead, while left-wing Labor and centrist Kadima both lost support. The attack may partially have been an attempt to win back hawkish voters who abandoned Kadima in the last few years.

Opposition party Likud did not criticize the government’s handling of the war until this weekend when Israel announced a unilateral cease-fire. The party’s leader Binyamin Netanyahu worded the criticism as follows: “We have a strong people and a strong military that dealt a harsh blow to the Hamas, but unfortunately the work is still not done,” Netanyahu said. “Hamas still controls Gaza and will still try to smuggle weapons into Gaza via the Philadelphi Corridor. We cannot show weakness against Hamas and its Iranian supporters. We need a strong, unwavering, persistent hand until the threat is eliminated.”

Clearly, Kadima’s leader Tzipi Livni is not that “strong, unwavering, persistent hand” in Netanyahu’s eyes. Prominent Likud MP-candidate Moshe Ya’alon worded it stronger: “The military delivered the goods, but it was a missed opportunity diplomatically. We restored our deterrence in the first week, but since then, two weeks were wasted. We didn’t need a war to reach a deal with the US against smuggling into Gaza.”

Kadima prepares to strike back by accusing Likud of unpatriotic behavior. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert kicked it off by saying: “no politician will do anything to erode the accomplishments of the operation.”

“I cannot entertain the notion that any Israeli would tell the Hamas that they basically won,” Olmert said. “If someone does this, I will face off against him with full force.”

 Israeli campaigns are often dirtier than American ones. Especially this year’s campaign promises to be full of dirt and mudslinging. Both sides will accuse each other of aiding and abetting the enemy and weakening Israel. Both will present themselves as hawks, because this is what the electorate wants.

Although Kadima is an offspring of Likud and although they have much in common, the parties differ on important points as well. Kadima is less confrontational and more willing to work with Fatah, whereas Likud considers both Hamas and Fatah arch enemies. Likud is also more willing to use violence against Gaza; if this party comes to power I expect another massive invasion of Gaza within two years time. Assuming Hamas continues to fire rockets at Israel that is. 

Kadima is more open to dialogue but we should not exaggerate its leaders’ willingness to compromise either. This is the party that decided to implement a blockade of Gaza immediately after Hamas won the elections, which resulted in bad PR for Israel and in tremendous economic suffering for Palestinians. Whether this decision was right or wrong is not my point; rather, one can only conclude that Labor would have acted differently if it was the largest party.

The elections will be significant, and they will not be. The differences between Likud and Kadima are sometimes stark, but they share an uncompromising approach to Hamas. The only way for the peace plan to move forward is by replacing Hamas with Fatah or by Hamas turning itself into Fatah Jr. Israel, led by Kadima or Likud, will not deal with Hamas otherwise.