I would write more on this, but I simply don’t have the time or the speed writing skills to both keep up with the news and write it down.  Other people, like Andrew Sullivan, simply can do it faster thanks to help he has.  Not even all our main bloggers could keep up, I think.  So rather than report the news as it comes in, I find it better to give analysis after a while.  That way some facts have been laid out.

Iran is into full protest mode now.  Well, at least in some of the cities, and especially Tehran.  Last  we heard, Ayatollah Khamenei has announced an investigation by the Guardian Council.  I think there is reason to be skeptical of what results they may find, especially since we already know how much government manipulation of the results have occured.  It’s an attempt to look legitimate to the wider world, but I don’t think they will buy it.

Unless, of course, you’re Barack Obama.  Or so it seems to be.

One of the reoccuring discussions I noticed over the weekend is how the administration should approach this.  Some are suggesting a careful, moderated approach, while some seem unhappy unless Obama gives his outright backing to Mousavi.  Some are also a little dismayed by earlier statements that they will continue working with the regime, even with a sham president.

I sympathize with the latter concerns.  The administration cannot be seen to legitimize any administration in Tehran until this is sorted out.  To do so will give the appearance of U.S. acceptance of that regime.  So all talks with the Ahmadinejad government must cease until this is over and the right leader has been chosen.  Like I said, I’m not confident of any investigation from the Guardian Council, and Tehran is never going accept the true results it seems.  One suggestion is to re-do the election, as Mousavi is calling for, but would this not simply produce the same result?  Government interference?

At this point, nothing short of an internationally observed election will probably be acceptable.

On the flip side, I don’t believe that Obama can outright back Mousavi either, like some so clearly want him to do.  It would just provide another form of propaganda for Ahmadinejad to play over and over on the state run press.  All about how the Americans are trying to interfer in Iran’s political process.  Or something like that.  That would probably make Iran walk away from the discussion table really fast.  Do we really want that?

So, that said, Obama’s address to the press later on, basically saying he’s leaving it up to the Iranians, is the right way to go.  It is their country and they must decide, no matter how we might not like it.  They seem to be doing a pretty good job so far.  After all, even if it is only another sham, it got Khamenei to call the investigation.  I just hope the Iranians can also see how this might be manipulated as much as the election results were.

I think they do and will call fraud for fraud if it happens again.  Meanwhile, they’re not giving up.  Mousavi has called for people to refrain from going to work tomorrow, so we will see if that does anything.

On a final note, I think some people need to beat down their hopes for the destruction of the theocracy system in Iran.  I don’t know for sure if even most reformers want that.  I am reminded of something one Twitterer from Tehran wrote the other day:

We’re not looking for a way to change our regime,we just need some changes, some reforms,80% of people voted for that, but…

This could be just his opinion, of course.  Yet, don’t forget that Mousavi had to allowed to run by the government.  So he is unlikely to be in favor of widespread changes.  Though some of his supporters have been calling for the removal of Khamenei, he himself has simply been calling for an election do-over.

That said, the revelation of this sham election could spark something in many Iranians if they think that their system of government isn’t working for them.  Over the past few days, I’ve read many things saying that this is how the ‘79 revolution began.  So who knows?

Below is Obama’s statement from today: