Elections Update: Conservatives in the Lead
Christopher Christie could very well become the next governor of New Jersey
Polls show that conservatives could very well win some major elections this week. Especially Republican candidate for governor of Virginia Robert McDonnell has nothing to worry about; he currently leads by more than 13%.
Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is almost a sure winner. According to Democratic Pollster PPP, Hoffman is now leading his Democratic rival Bill Owens, by as much as 17%, 51% versus 34%. The results of this poll were published shortly after the leadership of the Republican Party threw its weight behind Hoffman, while the official candidate in this race of the party who dropped out late last week, endorsed the Democratic candidate. By doing so, Dede Scozzafava proved her conservative critics were right. There wás little to no difference between her and Owens.
Finally, in New Jersey too, Republicans actually have a shot. Where most observers were pessimistic about Republican candidate for governor Christopher Christie’s chances initially, recent polls show him not only making a comeback, but actually taking (a solid) lead. Unlike Hoffman and McDonnell, however, Christie cannot afford even one bad day. He has to be on top of his game every minute of every hour until election day. And then still he has to hope that New Jersey will not do what it has traditionally done: vote for the Democratic candidate, no matter how horrible he may be.
The elections will take place, tomorrow, of course, and one day is an eternity in politics. But there is reason to be cheerful nonetheless. It seems likely that one conservative after another will dethrone his leftist Democratic opponent. Amazingly, it took voters a mere nine months to be so fed up with the leftist policies of the bunch currently in the White House, that they would vote for every single conservative candidate that steps up to the plate.
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I can only repeat what I have been saying for years.
“The cure for the GOP’s trek in the wilderness is 2-4 years of Democratic rule.”
In this case it seems to only have taken 8-10 months.
NY 23 is unique this round, and I wouldn’t take that polling to the bank. It looks like Hoffman’s seat to lose tomorrow, but in a low-turnout special election the margins of error in polling can be huge. Nor is it a good race to use as a barometer for anything. Not even for next year in the NY 23rd.
New Jersey is a toss-up at this point, and despite Christie’s polling roughly even, NJ tends to break Dem when the votes actually come in (with the usual assists from inner-city all-Dem precincts showing rather unbelievably high turnout…). The spoiler there is the Daggett faction. No one really knows if they’ll stick with Daggett or jump ship for Corzine in any numbers. Rumor is that the GOP is funding robo-calls pushing Daggett…no verifications at this point, so that may just be Corzine propaganda aimed at peeling off voters from the de facto Green candidat, who is pulling 10%+ numbers. In any case, unless Daggett fades out in the stretch it actually does look like a near thing, with just a slight edge to Corzine.
An interesting vote to watch that has gotten very little national press is the attempt at a “people’s veto” of the Maine gay marriage law, by referendum. The polling has been neck and neck, but spotty and substandard IMHO. That one hinges on turnout, which in turn depends on voter enthusiasm. My own take is that the law will stand, which would undercut the claims of a new national social-conservative wave. Out-of-state forces have plowed in lots of money (much more so on the repeal side than the let-it-stand side) and Mainers reflexively react stubbornly to outsider interference.
The Virgina governership swings red again. Not a doubt in my mind.
There’s also this to consider, which also trends against Christie.
The best defense against voter fraud is high margins. They can’t (succesfully) cheat if it isn’t close.
I can’t wait until the Dems get thrashed in 2010. It will be high comedy listening to the WH and MSM spin that.
Is that why Obama’s approval has remained steady at 52%-43% for about 3 months now?
Turns out the robo-calls for Daggett are actually coming from NJ Dems. By slamming Christie and annoying people with ugly Daggett pimpage they hoped to swing a few voters to Corzine.
amazed too see President numbers holding after dropping so far so fast! wasn’t he in the 70’s last winter? will probably drop more after election then hopefully for him it will stabilize or else he is politically in trouble. he should take a lesson from Clinton and run to the center as fast as possible or it will be a one term president.