The best defense against voter fraud is high margins. They can’t (succesfully) cheat if it isn’t close.

New Jersey is a toss-up at this point, and despite Christie’s polling roughly even, NJ tends to break Dem when the votes actually come in (with the usual assists from inner-city all-Dem precincts showing rather unbelievably high turnout…). The spoiler there is the Daggett faction. No one really knows if they’ll stick with Daggett or jump ship for Corzine in any numbers. Rumor is that the GOP is funding robo-calls pushing Daggett…no verifications at this point, so that may just be Corzine propaganda aimed at peeling off voters from the de facto Green candidat, who is pulling 10%+ numbers. In any case, unless Daggett fades out in the stretch it actually does look like a near thing, with just a slight edge to Corzine.

An interesting vote to watch that has gotten very little national press is the attempt at a “people’s veto” of the Maine gay marriage law, by referendum. The polling has been neck and neck, but spotty and substandard IMHO. That one hinges on turnout, which in turn depends on voter enthusiasm. My own take is that the law will stand, which would undercut the claims of a new national social-conservative wave. Out-of-state forces have plowed in lots of money (much more so on the repeal side than the let-it-stand side) and Mainers reflexively react stubbornly to outsider interference.

The Virgina governership swings red again. Not a doubt in my mind.

“The cure for the GOP’s trek in the wilderness is 2-4 years of Democratic rule.”

In this case it seems to only have taken 8-10 months.