As I have predicted, the declining social stigma regarding homosexuality in society is being mirrored in the military. A new RAND study shows that support for the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that bars openly gay people from serving in the military is eroding. Coming after most Democrats and even some Republicans have condemned the policy as damaging to the military’s ability to retain people in critical specialties like linguistics, DADT’s days are probably numbered.

The one thing that could reverse the trend, however, would be overly hasty action on the part of DADT opponents. In 1993, when then-President Bill Clinton attempted to repeal the ban on homosexuals in the military, his failure to line up support from high-profile military officers was a critical factor in the debacle that followed. His threat to act unilaterally through executive order provoked an immediate backlash even in the Democrat-controlled Congress. Congressional hearings were transparently rigged, with senior leaders still glowing in the aftermath of the victorious Gulf War matched against a smattering of witnesses of relatively low rank appearing alongside their legal counsel under shadow of criminal prosecutions. Opponents of the repeal argued that the disruption of gay soldiers would undermine the readiness of units, as anti-gay soldiers would simply not work effectively with openly gay soldiers. And because Clinton had failed to build a case based on anything other than purely moral appeals, he was unable to make a substantive argument about how banning gays actually harmed military readiness in response. The consequence was a rhetorical mismatch, where all the resonating arguments were on the side of those who wanted to ban homosexuals.

The RAND study is a piece in the emerging methodical program of President Obama’s challenge to the DADT policy. The arguments from individual fairness, while relatively ineffective as in 1993, still exist. But the decline in social stigmas against homosexuality, the reality of military manpower and skills shortfalls during a period of war, and changing attitudes within the military itself make the claim that gay soldiers would disrupt military readiness much harder to make. And President Obama’s reluctance to assuage purists by acting unilaterally shows he may to too smart to fall into the backlash trap again.